Will Marine Le Pen's conviction really keep her out of French politics? | Ian Bremmer's Quick Take

Criminals should not be allowed to be president or run any public office, only Americans are crazy enough to let that happen.

Party leaders are not above the law.

This was 100% politicized. I don’t see how Ian can get that aspect soo wrong.

This is the first time I’ve heard someone say it wasn’t political. Everyone else I’ve heard says it was entirely political and that Le Pen was convicted for something that every EU politician does. It is unwise for Bremmer to assume her conviction wasn’t political given all of the lawfare that we’ve seen from the Left in democracies around the globe. And isn’t it one hell of a coincidence that the one EU politician that the establishment most wanted to see in jail is the one that ends up in jail. Consider also the results of an alarming survey study conducted by well-known researcher Scott Rasmussen. He surveyed average Americans as well as people one might regard as the liberal elite, which his study defined as those having each of three attributes — an income over $150K, an address in a densely populated area, and a postgraduate degree. The study also identified a subset of the liberal elite that self-identifies as politically obsessed, i.e., they talk about politics every day. All subjects in the study were asked whether they would want their candidate to cheat were it necessary to avoid losing an election. The results were alarming: while only 7% of average Americans answered yes, a whopping 69% of the politically obsessed liberal elite answered yes. In other words, the study suggests that most left-leaning politicians are willing to cheat.

Don’t expect to see this study reported by legacy media. Though… I suppose legacy media could say that they won’t report the study because it is not news to them — they are already well aware of their own willingness to cheat. (For more about the study, see https://x.com/RobertBluey/status/1770789411568910756 )

Fake news, 100% political hit job

“No one is talking about this being political?” Did he really say that? These people are so sealed off from the rest of the world.

Unlike in the US – she's a convicted fellon now, and will not become President of France. Looks good to me.

Why don't you just move to Russia, Bremmer? You sound like a Putin apologist. Pathetic.

Romania, Germany, France, Hungary, Slovakia…Unelected EU acting against people of these countries.

I think Ian has this confused. Being convicted of embezzlement means you are automatically ineligible to run for office for five years. The evidence against Le Pen is overwhelming. So an appeal cannot really change anything. There is also a very good legal reason why the ban was applied immediately. The crime was, in essence, a criminal conspiracy that was carried out while the defendants were elected officials. They refused to take any responsibility and indeed countered the prosecution with unfounded allegations about political interference. So the judge was forced to conclude that there is no remorse or accountability which, by law, means that there is a good chance of recidivism. I find it impossible to believe that an appeal could change any of this and I find it even more impossible to believe that there is a constitutional problem here.

Then to the political side of things. Jacques Chirac, Francois Fillon and Nicolas Sarkozy were all brough low by corruption charges. You cannot make a credible narrative about persecution against Le Pen alone. Amusingly, if there is a snap election before 2027, then Le Pen cannot run and will lose her seat in the Assembly. She is also guaranteed to try and maintain her grip on National Rally even after the conviction. She will not step aside and make room for Bardella's presidential run. This is only going to make NR more dysfunctional. As for French democracy, this conviction will only strengthen it. French courts are clearly independent and can maintain checks and balances even against very powerful political figures.

What a put up job. Maybe the French will take to the streets. Barring her from running for office? I wonder why that is with her being a front runner in the next election. La Pen denies the charges and argues it was appropriate for the assistants to perform other party related work as they were political aides not direct employees of the European Parliament. In other words, if the European Parliament wanted them working on just European Parliament stuff maybe the European Parliament should have hired them as opposed to paying the party to do some of the work for the European Parliament.

Is the idea here that Marine Le pen desperately needed a couple of million euros to pay off her political party? I feel like she probably could’ve raised it. Her party is pretty big in France. This is just the latest NATO member to reject a populist candidate over some sort of judicial intervention. Pretty unbelievable. And again, you wanna talk about undermining the argument that democracy must flourish in Europe? This would be a great way to do it.

They almost pulled this same thing off with Trump. Le Pen better keep her head down if she still gets to run.

Cahuzac affair
The investigation was spurred by the March 2012 publication of a muckraking book about UBS, Ces 600 milliards qui manquent à la France – Enquête au cœur de l'évasion fiscale ("Those 600 billion which France is missing – Inquiry into the heart of tax evasion"), estimated the amount of tax income lost to UBS-controlled offshore accounts at €600 billion.[52]
On 19 March 2013 Jérôme Cahuzac resigned as a minister in charge of fighting against tax fraud due to tax fraud allegations

France's president and government subsequently decided to implement new reforms. There were two main reforms announced by President Hollande following this incident. The first one encompasses the idea that elected politicians who have been condemned for fiscal fraud or corruption would be forbidden from any type of public office or mandate.[22] And the second one states that the financial details of each and every single minister and Member of Parliament have to be examined and published.[23] French laws do not sanction the lie of an elected politician in front of the National Assembly. However, to fight perjury as much as possible, a specific law is trying to be put forth and passed by the National Assembly. This law states that a 75,000 euro fine and up to five years of prison was required for any elected politician or Member of Parliament who lies in front of Parliament about a fiscal or criminal matter.[24] These laws and new regulations were put in place after French politicians realized how dissatisfied the French population was. French news outlets LeMonde, LeFigaro and LCI conducted a study that indeed confirmed the preceding statement: 33% of France's citizens wanted President Hollande to dissolve the National Assembly – one of the Fifth French Republic's most important and emblematic pillars.[25]

Judges probably shouldn't be determining who has a right to run for office, and who shouldn't.
I can't speak to the details of the case, but I hope the law is applied fairly to all candidates.
Not a fan of Le Pen's politics, but it's usually best to air out such views and discredit them, rather than to allow underground politics to flourish unchallenged.
To me, Le Pen's nationalism speaks to the need for left wing nationalism that incorporates both democratic and civil values, in the form of democratic and civil rights.
Civility is critical to forming a democratic nation, especially a large democracy with many subcultures.

Well explained

The Globalists are using the Donald Trump lawfare strategy in an anti democratic move

Can you please do a commentary on the current status of the relationships between China, Russia and Iran… would they help each other out in the face of US aggression? And is it plausible that Netanyahu may have an underlying influence on the current shift in global world order? Thanks